Clearly fraud was committed in the Iranian election. The results were announced before the polls closed. Ahmadinejad won every single group and area (including city centers where Mousavi was wildly popular...even Mousavi's home town). Massive proests, if you can call more or less a riot a protest, of 100's of thousands immediately erupted. The 85% turnout almost certainly should have helped the reform candidate. Finally the only polls that showed Ahmadinejad doing that well were the clearly biased state run polls.
So, the question is, does it really matter? The President of Iran is little more than a puppet. Only the Grand Ayatollah Khomeni has any real power. The President has some control, subject to the Grand Ayatollah's approval, of the domestic agenda and NO control over foreign policy. He can merely choose the tone by which Khomeni's message is delivered. You are not even permitted to run for President of Iran unless Khomeni gives you permission. So, Ahmadinejad stole the election for puppet. How much does it really matter?
In my opinion, not much. More telling is that Khomeni permitted/endorsed/aided (who knows which) it to occur. Therefore clearly supporting the more conservative Ahmadinejad's positions. Additionally, the outrage of the Iranian people is important. This level of resistance to a brutally repressive regime is perhaps the most valuable lesson. When one takes to the streets in Iran they risk a great deal. The fact that so many are willing to openly express discontent in this manner, undoubtedly risking their lives to do so, is quite impressive and perhaps demonstrates that Iran is closer to seeing a seismic shift forced upon it regardless of whether or not its clerics are prepared for it. We've always known the younger generation of Iran was much more West oriented than the rest of the country. Perhaps enough of that "younger" generation is old enough to force some real changes in the next decade or so.
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I think you understate the importance of this rigging. The key is not whether the position of President of Iran matters or not (it does more than you might believe - Khamenei was President for 8 years before Khomenei's death), but the fact the that Khamenei, felt it necessary to rig the election - even when he is able to have full approval over the process and the President is a semi-figurehead. Mousavi as President gives him official legitimacy and brings the reformers back into officaldom. The fact that Khamenei had to blatantly supercede his own rigged process shows that the conservative regime in Iran is potentially becoming politically hollow. This could be the sign that the slow moving underground reformist movement might actually be starting to grab hold in earnest (i.e. beginning to have teeth rather than just being whispered between politicians). The real question is do some reformers live within the military complex, and if so, when will they feel the time is ready to step up?
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