Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The Next Saddam

The New York Times reported that, yesterday Tens of Thousands of protesters gathered in Baghdad to demand that the United States leave their country. These were Al-Sadr supporters, and it was the largest protest organized by anyone other than the Grand Ayatollah, the most powerful Shiite cleric. The implications of this protest are telling for what may happen when the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq.
While successfully Toppling Saddam, Bush's war of aggression has so destabilized Iraq and so disfigured the image of Democracy in the eyes of the Iraqi's that it will not be surprising if a radical, militant Shiite leader ascends to power in the aftermath of our devastating failure.
Al-Sadr seems prone to be able to take advantage of the power gap we will leave in our wake. He has massive amounts of support amongst Iraqi's Shiite population and has had, prior to the accusations that his militia was acting as a death squad killing Sunnis, support amongst Sunni Populations. Not only does he have popular support he also controls a militia that may enable him to seize power if it is not ceded to him. Saddam took a page from Hitler's book when he seized power, it appears as if Al-Sadr is posed to do the same.
This Scenario will leave Iraq more dangerous, more anti-US, more pro-terrorist, more likely to pursue weapons of mass destruction nation than it was before we toppled the somewhat secular Baathist Regime. Al-Sadr will be more radical and will rule a country with more reliance on Fundamentalist Islam than Saddam did. We will have created, not a beacon of Democracy in the Middle East, but instead a Bastion of Anti-West, pro Al-queda forces in one of the most Oil rich nations in the World.

2 comments:

Scott said...

Well we are still fairly far from a situation in which al-Sadr could take control of Iraq. But if you are worried about him (and since you also mention the great influence of Grand Ayatollan Sistani) you might want to check out a piece written by The Jamestown Foundation's Babk Rahimi late last month "The Sadr-Sistani Relationship".

Jefferson said...

Thanks Scott, it was a really good article. For anyone who's interest its available online at: http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=229